The new Coronavirus is highly contagious, many have been infected already; even more will be infected only in the future. However, as the victims will have to pay? May be lower than scientists previously assumptions, such as a new model from Asia.
3.4 per cent of the Corona-Infected die of the infection. The world health organization (WHO) is according to own statements so far. A new study from Hong Kong want to have calculated the mortality rate now, however, on the Basis of new, “more reliable” data. Accordingly, at least died in the Chinese epicenter of the Virus, fewer infected people than previously thought.
As the international team of researchers from the University of Hong Kong in the medical journal “Nature Medicine” writes, the proportion of patients who died until the end of February in Wuhan by the Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 caused Covid-19-disease, at “only” 1.4 per cent.
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The WHO overestimated the mortality rate?
The WHO and numerous experts would overestimate the mortality rate in relation to the new Coronavirus, therefore, clear. Also your Figures are based on the data from Wuhan. But the Chinese authorities officially confirmed by the Corona imply their calculations only cases.
However, the study authors argue, the dark figure in the matter of the Corona is large. Many do not notice an infection to be confused with a cold. In addition, contact persons would not be tested without an exception, as permitted by the capacities of the laboratories. Many of the infections were undetected, the mortality rate would have to be assumed to be high.
Therefore, it is important to determine the number of unreported cases of Infected, explain to the Hong Kong scientists. Only those who know the total number of people Infected, could determine the mortality rate is realistic. Also you can only appreciate. It was a “challenge,” as the authors write, but necessary, because the health system is overwhelmed in Wuhan in the acute phase of the Virus outbreak in China, “” and will not be able to identify all of the infections.
The model includes considerably more parameters than the WHO statement
The actual Infected numbers get as close as possible to, take into account the researchers in their model calculation, therefore, not only the officially reported cases, but also data from infected airline passengers, the age of the Infected and the time between the first symptoms of the disease in patients and her death.
About half of the Infected will stay according to the researchers, is also asymptomatic. The must be found in the calculation of the mortality rate input. At the end of your Rechenwegs the authors of the study come at a value of 1.4 percent.
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The risk of death increases with age
The probability for the Individual to die on the Coronavirus, varying with the age of the Infected, the scientists write more.
People who are older than 60 years of age, would die, therefore, about five times as often in consequence of a Coronavirus infection, such as younger people between the ages of 30 and 59 years. In General, the risk of death between the ages of 30 increases. and the 60. Age of per year to four per cent.
The mortality rate is one of since the beginning of the Corona pandemic, particularly the much-discussed parameters. The estimates vary, in part far; while some scholars of about one per cent out, to give the authorities in Italy, currently with approximately eight percent, the WHO, with just 3.4 per cent. The chief virologist of the Charité Christian Drosten was already out some time ago to have a lower mortality rate than it had reported to the authorities.
How high it is, however, exactly, they are going to can reliably say in any case only after the end of the pandemic, the President of the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin Lothar Wieler. The researchers from Hong Kong, keep at least your number is in any case closer to reality than the WHO specification.
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